Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

62%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -2.2

1-1 · 72.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB49

+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over TCU (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room51

-0.4 TCU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TCU FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room51

+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over TCU (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense54

Even matchup — both units index the same

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush56

-0.4 TCU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TCU FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage54

-1.7 TCU advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TCU FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line51

+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over TCU (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game50

+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over TCU (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.