Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.8 UCF advantage — 2-point index gap over Georgia State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UCF FBS average.
-5.0 UCF advantage — 12-point index gap over Georgia State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UCF Above average.
-2.5 UCF advantage — 6-point index gap over Georgia State (line yards against stuff rate). UCF Above average.
-2.9 UCF advantage — 7-point index gap over Georgia State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UCF Above average.
-4.6 UCF advantage — 11-point index gap over Georgia State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UCF Above average.
-0.4 UCF advantage — 1-point index gap over Georgia State (pressure differential in the trenches). UCF FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.