Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
GAST win probability
Projected line: GAST -7.8
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+7.6 GAST advantage — 18-point index gap over Kennesaw State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). GAST FBS average.
+6.3 GAST advantage — 15-point index gap over Kennesaw State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). GAST FBS average.
+5.0 GAST advantage — 12-point index gap over Kennesaw State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). GAST FBS average.
+5.0 GAST advantage — 12-point index gap over Kennesaw State (line yards against stuff rate). GAST FBS average.
+7.1 GAST advantage — 17-point index gap over Kennesaw State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). GAST FBS average.
+4.2 GAST advantage — 10-point index gap over Kennesaw State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). GAST FBS average.
+7.6 GAST advantage — 18-point index gap over Kennesaw State (pressure differential in the trenches). GAST FBS average.
+7.6 GAST advantage — 18-point index gap over Kennesaw State (coverage grade against target efficiency). GAST FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.