Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

70%

TENN win probability

Projected line: TENN -3.7

2-0 · 81.5 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB69

-8.0 TENN advantage — 19-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TENN Above average.

50WR Room vs WR Room69

-8.0 TENN advantage — 19-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TENN Above average.

53RB Room vs RB Room70

-7.1 TENN advantage — 17-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TENN Above average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense63

-3.8 TENN advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). TENN Above average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush78

-9.7 TENN advantage — 23-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TENN Top 25 level.

50Pass Game vs Coverage75

-10.5 TENN advantage — 25-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TENN Top 25 level.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line67

-3.8 TENN advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). TENN Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game70

-7.6 TENN advantage — 18-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). TENN Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.