Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Fresno State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-12.6 USC advantage — 30-point index gap over Fresno State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). USC Top 25 level.
-10.1 USC advantage — 24-point index gap over Fresno State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). USC Above average.
-11.3 USC advantage — 27-point index gap over Fresno State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). USC Above average.
-13.9 USC advantage — 33-point index gap over Fresno State (line yards against stuff rate). USC Above average.
-15.5 USC advantage — 37-point index gap over Fresno State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). USC Above average.
-7.1 USC advantage — 17-point index gap over Fresno State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). USC Above average.
-13.4 USC advantage — 32-point index gap over Fresno State (pressure differential in the trenches). USC Above average.
-17.2 USC advantage — 41-point index gap over Fresno State (coverage grade against target efficiency). USC Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.