Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
SJSU win probability
Projected line: SJSU -1.1
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 FRES advantage — 2-point index gap over San José State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). FRES FBS average.
+0.4 FRES advantage — 1-point index gap over San José State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FRES FBS average.
-1.7 SJSU advantage — 4-point index gap over Fresno State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SJSU Below average.
-1.3 SJSU advantage — 3-point index gap over Fresno State (line yards against stuff rate). SJSU Below average.
-4.2 SJSU advantage — 10-point index gap over Fresno State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SJSU Below average.
+1.7 FRES advantage — 4-point index gap over San José State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). FRES FBS average.
-2.9 SJSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Fresno State (pressure differential in the trenches). SJSU FBS average.
-5.9 SJSU advantage — 14-point index gap over Fresno State (coverage grade against target efficiency). SJSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.