Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
COLO win probability
Projected line: COLO -10.9
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.
+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+4.2 COLO advantage — 10-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+5.5 COLO advantage — 13-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
+4.6 COLO advantage — 11-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.