Composite projection engine
College Football Matchup Simulator
Team Selection
Positional Comparison — 0 to 100 unit index
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.3 FSU advantage — 3-point index gap over Pittsburgh (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). FSU Above average.
+0.8 FSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Pittsburgh (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FSU Above average.
+2.9 FSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Pittsburgh (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). FSU Above average.
+2.9 FSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Pittsburgh (line yards against stuff rate). FSU Above average.
+4.6 FSU advantage — 11-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). FSU Above average.
+4.2 FSU advantage — 10-point index gap over Pittsburgh (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). FSU Above average.
+0.4 FSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pressure differential in the trenches). FSU FBS average.
-0.8 PITT advantage — 2-point index gap over Florida State (coverage grade against target efficiency). PITT Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.