Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Florida State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-5.5 ALA advantage — 13-point index gap over Florida State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ALA Top 25 level.
-4.2 ALA advantage — 10-point index gap over Florida State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ALA Above average.
-5.0 ALA advantage — 12-point index gap over Florida State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ALA Top 25 level.
-10.9 ALA advantage — 26-point index gap over Florida State (line yards against stuff rate). ALA Top 25 level.
-6.7 ALA advantage — 16-point index gap over Florida State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ALA Top 25 level.
-5.0 ALA advantage — 12-point index gap over Florida State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ALA Top 25 level.
-6.7 ALA advantage — 16-point index gap over Florida State (pressure differential in the trenches). ALA Top 25 level.
-5.9 ALA advantage — 14-point index gap over Florida State (coverage grade against target efficiency). ALA Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.