Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Florida International is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
USF win probability
Projected line: USF -3.8
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.9 USF advantage — 7-point index gap over Florida International (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). USF FBS average.
-1.3 USF advantage — 3-point index gap over Florida International (explosive pass rate and yards per target). USF FBS average.
-2.5 USF advantage — 6-point index gap over Florida International (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). USF FBS average.
-5.5 USF advantage — 13-point index gap over Florida International (line yards against stuff rate). USF FBS average.
-1.3 USF advantage — 3-point index gap over Florida International (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). USF FBS average.
-4.6 USF advantage — 11-point index gap over Florida International (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). USF FBS average.
-2.5 USF advantage — 6-point index gap over Florida International (pressure differential in the trenches). USF FBS average.
+0.4 FIU advantage — 1-point index gap over South Florida (coverage grade against target efficiency). FIU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.