Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Florida International is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
FIU win probability
Projected line: FIU -5.0
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.4 FAU advantage — 1-point index gap over Florida International (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FAU FBS average.
-2.9 FAU advantage — 7-point index gap over Florida International (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). FAU FBS average.
+0.8 FIU advantage — 2-point index gap over Florida Atlantic (line yards against stuff rate). FIU Below average.
+1.7 FIU advantage — 4-point index gap over Florida Atlantic (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). FIU FBS average.
+1.7 FIU advantage — 4-point index gap over Florida Atlantic (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). FIU Below average.
-1.7 FAU advantage — 4-point index gap over Florida International (pressure differential in the trenches). FAU FBS average.
+2.1 FIU advantage — 5-point index gap over Florida Atlantic (coverage grade against target efficiency). FIU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.