Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

63%

WASH win probability

Projected line: WASH -2.4

2-0 · 79.4 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB55

-2.1 WASH advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). WASH FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room54

-1.7 WASH advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). WASH FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room54

-0.4 WASH advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). WASH FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense58

-1.7 WASH advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). WASH Above average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush62

-2.9 WASH advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WASH Above average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage61

-4.6 WASH advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). WASH Above average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line58

Even matchup — both units index the same

52Coverage vs Pass Game54

-0.8 WASH advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). WASH FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.