Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Eastern Michigan is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
MSU win probability
Projected line: MSU -10.8
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-5.0 MSU advantage — 12-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MSU FBS average.
-4.2 MSU advantage — 10-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MSU FBS average.
-3.8 MSU advantage — 9-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MSU FBS average.
-7.6 MSU advantage — 18-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (line yards against stuff rate). MSU Above average.
-4.6 MSU advantage — 11-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MSU FBS average.
-4.2 MSU advantage — 10-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MSU FBS average.
-2.9 MSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (pressure differential in the trenches). MSU FBS average.
-2.1 MSU advantage — 5-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (coverage grade against target efficiency). MSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.