Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-5.0 MINN advantage — 12-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MINN Above average.
-3.4 MINN advantage — 8-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MINN Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-1.3 MINN advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). MINN FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-2.1 MINN advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MINN FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Minnesota (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-2.9 MINN advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). MINN Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.