Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.5 UNC advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UNC FBS average.
-1.7 UNC advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UNC FBS average.
-0.4 UNC advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNC FBS average.
-1.3 UNC advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). UNC FBS average.
-1.3 UNC advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UNC Above average.
-3.8 UNC advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UNC Above average.
+1.7 COLO advantage — 4-point index gap over North Carolina (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-1.3 UNC advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). UNC FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.