Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 55.3 PWR

54%

ECU win probability

Projected line: ECU -0.7

1-1 · 54.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

42QB vs QB43

-0.4 ODU advantage — 1-point index gap over East Carolina (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ODU FBS average.

49WR Room vs WR Room44

+2.1 ECU advantage — 5-point index gap over Old Dominion (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ECU FBS average.

31RB Room vs RB Room39

-3.4 ODU advantage — 8-point index gap over East Carolina (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ODU Below average.

22Run Blocking vs Run Defense43

-8.8 ODU advantage — 21-point index gap over East Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). ODU FBS average.

31Offensive Line vs Pass Rush47

-6.7 ODU advantage — 16-point index gap over East Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ODU FBS average.

48Pass Game vs Coverage46

+0.8 ECU advantage — 2-point index gap over Old Dominion (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ECU FBS average.

43Pass Rush vs Offensive Line34

+3.8 ECU advantage — 9-point index gap over Old Dominion (pressure differential in the trenches). ECU FBS average.

45Coverage vs Pass Game44

+0.4 ECU advantage — 1-point index gap over Old Dominion (coverage grade against target efficiency). ECU FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.