Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 55.3 PWR

96%

ALA win probability

Projected line: ALA -22.2

2-0 · 91.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

42QB vs QB72

-12.6 ALA advantage — 30-point index gap over East Carolina (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ALA Top 25 level.

49WR Room vs WR Room70

-8.8 ALA advantage — 21-point index gap over East Carolina (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ALA Above average.

31RB Room vs RB Room74

-18.1 ALA advantage — 43-point index gap over East Carolina (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ALA Top 25 level.

22Run Blocking vs Run Defense88

-27.7 ALA advantage — 66-point index gap over East Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). ALA Top 25 level.

31Offensive Line vs Pass Rush76

-18.9 ALA advantage — 45-point index gap over East Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ALA Top 25 level.

48Pass Game vs Coverage72

-10.1 ALA advantage — 24-point index gap over East Carolina (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ALA Top 25 level.

43Pass Rush vs Offensive Line73

-12.6 ALA advantage — 30-point index gap over East Carolina (pressure differential in the trenches). ALA Top 25 level.

45Coverage vs Pass Game70

-10.5 ALA advantage — 25-point index gap over East Carolina (coverage grade against target efficiency). ALA Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.