Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-7.6 ILL advantage — 18-point index gap over Duke (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ILL Above average.
-5.9 ILL advantage — 14-point index gap over Duke (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ILL Above average.
-1.3 ILL advantage — 3-point index gap over Duke (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ILL FBS average.
+2.1 DUKE advantage — 5-point index gap over Illinois (line yards against stuff rate). DUKE FBS average.
+0.8 DUKE advantage — 2-point index gap over Illinois (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). DUKE FBS average.
-4.2 ILL advantage — 10-point index gap over Duke (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ILL FBS average.
-0.8 ILL advantage — 2-point index gap over Duke (pressure differential in the trenches). ILL FBS average.
-2.5 ILL advantage — 6-point index gap over Duke (coverage grade against target efficiency). ILL Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.