Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
WVU win probability
Projected line: WVU -7.0
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-3.4 WVU advantage — 8-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). WVU FBS average.
-1.7 WVU advantage — 4-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (explosive pass rate and yards per target). WVU FBS average.
-5.5 WVU advantage — 13-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). WVU FBS average.
-8.4 WVU advantage — 20-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). WVU FBS average.
-7.1 WVU advantage — 17-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WVU FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-3.8 WVU advantage — 9-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (pressure differential in the trenches). WVU FBS average.
-6.3 WVU advantage — 15-point index gap over Coastal Carolina (coverage grade against target efficiency). WVU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.