Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
COLO win probability
Projected line: COLO -8.6
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over Georgia Southern (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Georgia Southern (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Georgia Southern (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-4.6 GASO advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). GASO Above average.
-4.6 GASO advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). GASO Above average.
+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over Georgia Southern (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Georgia Southern (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.