Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Central Michigan is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
UNM win probability
Projected line: UNM -5.1
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-4.6 UNM advantage — 11-point index gap over Central Michigan (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UNM Below average.
-2.5 UNM advantage — 6-point index gap over Central Michigan (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UNM Below average.
-1.7 UNM advantage — 4-point index gap over Central Michigan (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNM FBS average.
+4.2 CMU advantage — 10-point index gap over New Mexico (line yards against stuff rate). CMU FBS average.
-6.7 UNM advantage — 16-point index gap over Central Michigan (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UNM FBS average.
-8.4 UNM advantage — 20-point index gap over Central Michigan (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UNM FBS average.
-0.4 UNM advantage — 1-point index gap over Central Michigan (pressure differential in the trenches). UNM Below average.
+2.1 CMU advantage — 5-point index gap over New Mexico (coverage grade against target efficiency). CMU Below average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.