Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Toledo (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.
-2.1 TOL advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TOL FBS average.
+5.5 COLO advantage — 13-point index gap over Toledo (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+3.4 COLO advantage — 8-point index gap over Toledo (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+5.0 COLO advantage — 12-point index gap over Toledo (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over Toledo (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Toledo (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.