Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 72.1 PWR

58%

SYR win probability

Projected line: SYR -1.4

1-1 · 74.4 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

52QB vs QB58

-2.5 SYR advantage — 6-point index gap over California (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SYR Above average.

55WR Room vs WR Room57

-0.8 SYR advantage — 2-point index gap over California (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SYR FBS average.

50RB Room vs RB Room63

-5.5 SYR advantage — 13-point index gap over California (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SYR Above average.

51Run Blocking vs Run Defense66

-6.3 SYR advantage — 15-point index gap over California (line yards against stuff rate). SYR Above average.

54Offensive Line vs Pass Rush63

-3.8 SYR advantage — 9-point index gap over California (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SYR Above average.

54Pass Game vs Coverage61

-2.9 SYR advantage — 7-point index gap over California (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SYR Above average.

56Pass Rush vs Offensive Line58

-0.8 SYR advantage — 2-point index gap over California (pressure differential in the trenches). SYR Above average.

55Coverage vs Pass Game57

-0.8 SYR advantage — 2-point index gap over California (coverage grade against target efficiency). SYR FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.