Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+3.4 BYU advantage — 8-point index gap over Colorado State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). BYU FBS average.
+2.1 BYU advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). BYU FBS average.
+5.9 BYU advantage — 14-point index gap over Colorado State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). BYU Above average.
+7.1 BYU advantage — 17-point index gap over Colorado State (line yards against stuff rate). BYU Above average.
+2.1 BYU advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). BYU FBS average.
+1.7 BYU advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). BYU FBS average.
+0.4 BYU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado State (pressure differential in the trenches). BYU FBS average.
+3.8 BYU advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado State (coverage grade against target efficiency). BYU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.