Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 53.4 PWR

96%

PSU win probability

Projected line: PSU -17.7

2-0 · 82.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

37QB vs QB75

-16.0 PSU advantage — 38-point index gap over Buffalo (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PSU Top 25 level.

37WR Room vs WR Room75

-16.0 PSU advantage — 38-point index gap over Buffalo (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PSU Top 25 level.

39RB Room vs RB Room59

-8.4 PSU advantage — 20-point index gap over Buffalo (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). PSU Above average.

40Run Blocking vs Run Defense73

-13.9 PSU advantage — 33-point index gap over Buffalo (line yards against stuff rate). PSU Top 25 level.

42Offensive Line vs Pass Rush63

-8.8 PSU advantage — 21-point index gap over Buffalo (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). PSU Above average.

36Pass Game vs Coverage66

-12.6 PSU advantage — 30-point index gap over Buffalo (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). PSU Above average.

42Pass Rush vs Offensive Line67

-10.5 PSU advantage — 25-point index gap over Buffalo (pressure differential in the trenches). PSU Above average.

44Coverage vs Pass Game75

-13.0 PSU advantage — 31-point index gap over Buffalo (coverage grade against target efficiency). PSU Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.