Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
FIU win probability
Projected line: FIU -4.0
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.7 FIU advantage — 4-point index gap over Buffalo (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). FIU Below average.
-1.7 FIU advantage — 4-point index gap over Buffalo (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FIU Below average.
-0.4 FIU advantage — 1-point index gap over Buffalo (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). FIU Below average.
-2.5 FIU advantage — 6-point index gap over Buffalo (line yards against stuff rate). FIU FBS average.
-0.4 FIU advantage — 1-point index gap over Buffalo (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). FIU FBS average.
-4.2 FIU advantage — 10-point index gap over Buffalo (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). FIU FBS average.
-1.3 FIU advantage — 3-point index gap over Buffalo (pressure differential in the trenches). FIU FBS average.
+1.3 BUF advantage — 3-point index gap over Florida International (coverage grade against target efficiency). BUF FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.