Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Bowling Green is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-7.1 NEB advantage — 17-point index gap over Bowling Green (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NEB Above average.
-8.0 NEB advantage — 19-point index gap over Bowling Green (explosive pass rate and yards per target). NEB Above average.
-13.0 NEB advantage — 31-point index gap over Bowling Green (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NEB Above average.
-7.6 NEB advantage — 18-point index gap over Bowling Green (line yards against stuff rate). NEB FBS average.
-6.3 NEB advantage — 15-point index gap over Bowling Green (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). NEB Above average.
-8.4 NEB advantage — 20-point index gap over Bowling Green (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NEB Above average.
-9.2 NEB advantage — 22-point index gap over Bowling Green (pressure differential in the trenches). NEB Above average.
-10.1 NEB advantage — 24-point index gap over Bowling Green (coverage grade against target efficiency). NEB Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.