Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Bowling Green is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.5 ISU advantage — 6-point index gap over Bowling Green (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ISU FBS average.
-5.0 ISU advantage — 12-point index gap over Bowling Green (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ISU FBS average.
-6.7 ISU advantage — 16-point index gap over Bowling Green (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ISU FBS average.
-5.9 ISU advantage — 14-point index gap over Bowling Green (line yards against stuff rate). ISU FBS average.
-7.1 ISU advantage — 17-point index gap over Bowling Green (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ISU Above average.
-4.2 ISU advantage — 10-point index gap over Bowling Green (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ISU FBS average.
-4.6 ISU advantage — 11-point index gap over Bowling Green (pressure differential in the trenches). ISU FBS average.
-7.1 ISU advantage — 17-point index gap over Bowling Green (coverage grade against target efficiency). ISU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.