Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+0.4 BC advantage — 1-point index gap over Cincinnati (explosive pass rate and yards per target). BC FBS average.
-1.3 CIN advantage — 3-point index gap over Boston College (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). CIN FBS average.
+1.3 BC advantage — 3-point index gap over Cincinnati (line yards against stuff rate). BC FBS average.
-2.9 CIN advantage — 7-point index gap over Boston College (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). CIN FBS average.
-2.5 CIN advantage — 6-point index gap over Boston College (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). CIN FBS average.
-0.4 CIN advantage — 1-point index gap over Boston College (pressure differential in the trenches). CIN FBS average.
+1.7 BC advantage — 4-point index gap over Cincinnati (coverage grade against target efficiency). BC FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.