Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 65.1 PWR

96%

ORE win probability

Projected line: ORE -12.2

1-1 · 84.8 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

45QB vs QB70

-10.5 ORE advantage — 25-point index gap over Boise State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ORE Above average.

45WR Room vs WR Room72

-11.3 ORE advantage — 27-point index gap over Boise State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ORE Top 25 level.

44RB Room vs RB Room70

-10.9 ORE advantage — 26-point index gap over Boise State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ORE Above average.

47Run Blocking vs Run Defense67

-8.4 ORE advantage — 20-point index gap over Boise State (line yards against stuff rate). ORE Above average.

45Offensive Line vs Pass Rush69

-10.1 ORE advantage — 24-point index gap over Boise State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ORE Above average.

45Pass Game vs Coverage68

-9.7 ORE advantage — 23-point index gap over Boise State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ORE Above average.

45Pass Rush vs Offensive Line71

-10.9 ORE advantage — 26-point index gap over Boise State (pressure differential in the trenches). ORE Above average.

44Coverage vs Pass Game72

-11.8 ORE advantage — 28-point index gap over Boise State (coverage grade against target efficiency). ORE Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.