Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Ball State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-20.6 OSU advantage — 49-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OSU Top 25 level.
-18.1 OSU advantage — 43-point index gap over Ball State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OSU Top 25 level.
-16.0 OSU advantage — 38-point index gap over Ball State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OSU Top 25 level.
-14.3 OSU advantage — 34-point index gap over Ball State (line yards against stuff rate). OSU Above average.
-13.4 OSU advantage — 32-point index gap over Ball State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OSU Above average.
-18.9 OSU advantage — 45-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.
-14.3 OSU advantage — 34-point index gap over Ball State (pressure differential in the trenches). OSU Above average.
-19.7 OSU advantage — 47-point index gap over Ball State (coverage grade against target efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.