Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 47.7 PWR

86%

LIB win probability

Projected line: LIB -6.6

1-1 · 58.3 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

30QB vs QB45

-6.3 LIB advantage — 15-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). LIB FBS average.

34WR Room vs WR Room46

-5.0 LIB advantage — 12-point index gap over Ball State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). LIB FBS average.

35RB Room vs RB Room41

-2.5 LIB advantage — 6-point index gap over Ball State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). LIB Below average.

37Run Blocking vs Run Defense44

-2.9 LIB advantage — 7-point index gap over Ball State (line yards against stuff rate). LIB FBS average.

39Offensive Line vs Pass Rush42

-1.3 LIB advantage — 3-point index gap over Ball State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). LIB FBS average.

33Pass Game vs Coverage45

-5.0 LIB advantage — 12-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). LIB FBS average.

37Pass Rush vs Offensive Line46

-3.8 LIB advantage — 9-point index gap over Ball State (pressure differential in the trenches). LIB FBS average.

31Coverage vs Pass Game46

-6.3 LIB advantage — 15-point index gap over Ball State (coverage grade against target efficiency). LIB FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.