Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.7 VAN advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). VAN FBS average.
-0.8 VAN advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). VAN FBS average.
-0.8 VAN advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). VAN FBS average.
+1.7 COLO advantage — 4-point index gap over Vanderbilt (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
-2.5 VAN advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). VAN Above average.
-2.5 VAN advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). VAN FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Vanderbilt (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.