Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 57.8 PWR

96%

TCU win probability

Projected line: TCU -8.8

1-1 · 72.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

46QB vs QB49

-1.3 TCU advantage — 3-point index gap over Arkansas State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TCU FBS average.

46WR Room vs WR Room51

-2.1 TCU advantage — 5-point index gap over Arkansas State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TCU FBS average.

46RB Room vs RB Room51

-2.1 TCU advantage — 5-point index gap over Arkansas State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TCU FBS average.

47Run Blocking vs Run Defense54

-2.9 TCU advantage — 7-point index gap over Arkansas State (line yards against stuff rate). TCU FBS average.

43Offensive Line vs Pass Rush56

-5.5 TCU advantage — 13-point index gap over Arkansas State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TCU FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage54

-2.9 TCU advantage — 7-point index gap over Arkansas State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TCU FBS average.

40Pass Rush vs Offensive Line51

-4.6 TCU advantage — 11-point index gap over Arkansas State (pressure differential in the trenches). TCU FBS average.

33Coverage vs Pass Game50

-7.1 TCU advantage — 17-point index gap over Arkansas State (coverage grade against target efficiency). TCU FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.