Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-3.8 MEM advantage — 9-point index gap over Arkansas State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MEM FBS average.
-3.4 MEM advantage — 8-point index gap over Arkansas State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MEM FBS average.
-3.4 MEM advantage — 8-point index gap over Arkansas State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MEM FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-4.2 MEM advantage — 10-point index gap over Arkansas State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MEM FBS average.
-0.8 MEM advantage — 2-point index gap over Arkansas State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MEM FBS average.
-5.5 MEM advantage — 13-point index gap over Arkansas State (pressure differential in the trenches). MEM FBS average.
-9.2 MEM advantage — 22-point index gap over Arkansas State (coverage grade against target efficiency). MEM FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.