Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Arkansas is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.8 UTAH advantage — 2-point index gap over Arkansas (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UTAH Above average.
-2.9 UTAH advantage — 7-point index gap over Arkansas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UTAH Above average.
+0.8 ARK advantage — 2-point index gap over Utah (line yards against stuff rate). ARK FBS average.
+1.7 ARK advantage — 4-point index gap over Utah (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ARK FBS average.
+0.4 ARK advantage — 1-point index gap over Utah (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ARK FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+1.3 ARK advantage — 3-point index gap over Utah (coverage grade against target efficiency). ARK Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.