Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-0.8 TA&M advantage — 2-point index gap over Arizona State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TA&M Above average.
-0.4 TA&M advantage — 1-point index gap over Arizona State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TA&M Above average.
-2.5 TA&M advantage — 6-point index gap over Arizona State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TA&M Above average.
-6.3 TA&M advantage — 15-point index gap over Arizona State (line yards against stuff rate). TA&M Top 25 level.
-4.6 TA&M advantage — 11-point index gap over Arizona State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TA&M Above average.
-4.2 TA&M advantage — 10-point index gap over Arizona State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TA&M Top 25 level.
-5.5 TA&M advantage — 13-point index gap over Arizona State (pressure differential in the trenches). TA&M Above average.
-2.9 TA&M advantage — 7-point index gap over Arizona State (coverage grade against target efficiency). TA&M Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.