Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.7 ASU advantage — 4-point index gap over Kansas (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ASU Above average.
+1.7 ASU advantage — 4-point index gap over Kansas (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ASU Above average.
+2.1 ASU advantage — 5-point index gap over Kansas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ASU Above average.
-4.2 KU advantage — 10-point index gap over Arizona State (line yards against stuff rate). KU Above average.
-0.4 KU advantage — 1-point index gap over Arizona State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). KU Above average.
+3.8 ASU advantage — 9-point index gap over Kansas (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ASU Above average.
-2.1 KU advantage — 5-point index gap over Arizona State (pressure differential in the trenches). KU Above average.
-1.3 KU advantage — 3-point index gap over Arizona State (coverage grade against target efficiency). KU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.