Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.3 BYU advantage — 3-point index gap over Arizona (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). BYU FBS average.
-1.7 BYU advantage — 4-point index gap over Arizona (explosive pass rate and yards per target). BYU FBS average.
-1.3 BYU advantage — 3-point index gap over Arizona (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). BYU Above average.
+0.4 ARIZ advantage — 1-point index gap over BYU (line yards against stuff rate). ARIZ Above average.
+1.7 ARIZ advantage — 4-point index gap over BYU (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ARIZ FBS average.
-2.9 BYU advantage — 7-point index gap over Arizona (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). BYU FBS average.
+2.1 ARIZ advantage — 5-point index gap over BYU (pressure differential in the trenches). ARIZ Above average.
+1.3 ARIZ advantage — 3-point index gap over BYU (coverage grade against target efficiency). ARIZ FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.