Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 62.4 PWR

74%

APP win probability

Projected line: APP -4.4

0-2 · 55.3 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

55QB vs QB42

+5.5 APP advantage — 13-point index gap over East Carolina (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). APP FBS average.

53WR Room vs WR Room49

+1.7 APP advantage — 4-point index gap over East Carolina (explosive pass rate and yards per target). APP FBS average.

50RB Room vs RB Room31

+8.0 APP advantage — 19-point index gap over East Carolina (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). APP FBS average.

46Run Blocking vs Run Defense40

+2.5 APP advantage — 6-point index gap over East Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). APP FBS average.

49Offensive Line vs Pass Rush43

+2.5 APP advantage — 6-point index gap over East Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). APP FBS average.

53Pass Game vs Coverage45

+3.4 APP advantage — 8-point index gap over East Carolina (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). APP FBS average.

49Pass Rush vs Offensive Line31

+7.6 APP advantage — 18-point index gap over East Carolina (pressure differential in the trenches). APP FBS average.

53Coverage vs Pass Game48

+2.1 APP advantage — 5-point index gap over East Carolina (coverage grade against target efficiency). APP FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.