Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 91.1 PWR

96%

ALA win probability

Projected line: ALA -11.2

1-1 · 73.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

72QB vs QB66

+2.5 ALA advantage — 6-point index gap over Kentucky (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ALA Top 25 level.

70WR Room vs WR Room63

+2.9 ALA advantage — 7-point index gap over Kentucky (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ALA Above average.

74RB Room vs RB Room64

+4.2 ALA advantage — 10-point index gap over Kentucky (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ALA Top 25 level.

74Run Blocking vs Run Defense58

+6.7 ALA advantage — 16-point index gap over Kentucky (line yards against stuff rate). ALA Top 25 level.

73Offensive Line vs Pass Rush56

+7.1 ALA advantage — 17-point index gap over Kentucky (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ALA Top 25 level.

70Pass Game vs Coverage57

+5.5 ALA advantage — 13-point index gap over Kentucky (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ALA Above average.

76Pass Rush vs Offensive Line65

+4.6 ALA advantage — 11-point index gap over Kentucky (pressure differential in the trenches). ALA Top 25 level.

72Coverage vs Pass Game64

+3.4 ALA advantage — 8-point index gap over Kentucky (coverage grade against target efficiency). ALA Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.