Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 51.5 PWR

96%

WAKE win probability

Projected line: WAKE -13.0

2-0 · 72.5 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

38QB vs QB54

-6.7 WAKE advantage — 16-point index gap over Akron (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). WAKE FBS average.

36WR Room vs WR Room57

-8.8 WAKE advantage — 21-point index gap over Akron (explosive pass rate and yards per target). WAKE FBS average.

39RB Room vs RB Room54

-6.3 WAKE advantage — 15-point index gap over Akron (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). WAKE FBS average.

37Run Blocking vs Run Defense52

-6.3 WAKE advantage — 15-point index gap over Akron (line yards against stuff rate). WAKE FBS average.

40Offensive Line vs Pass Rush49

-3.8 WAKE advantage — 9-point index gap over Akron (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WAKE FBS average.

36Pass Game vs Coverage52

-6.7 WAKE advantage — 16-point index gap over Akron (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). WAKE FBS average.

36Pass Rush vs Offensive Line55

-8.0 WAKE advantage — 19-point index gap over Akron (pressure differential in the trenches). WAKE FBS average.

35Coverage vs Pass Game57

-9.2 WAKE advantage — 22-point index gap over Akron (coverage grade against target efficiency). WAKE FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.