Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 51.5 PWR

96%

MINN win probability

Projected line: MINN -11.3

1-1 · 69.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

38QB vs QB62

-10.1 MINN advantage — 24-point index gap over Akron (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MINN Above average.

36WR Room vs WR Room58

-9.2 MINN advantage — 22-point index gap over Akron (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MINN Above average.

39RB Room vs RB Room53

-5.9 MINN advantage — 14-point index gap over Akron (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MINN FBS average.

37Run Blocking vs Run Defense57

-8.4 MINN advantage — 20-point index gap over Akron (line yards against stuff rate). MINN FBS average.

40Offensive Line vs Pass Rush55

-6.3 MINN advantage — 15-point index gap over Akron (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MINN FBS average.

36Pass Game vs Coverage55

-8.0 MINN advantage — 19-point index gap over Akron (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MINN FBS average.

36Pass Rush vs Offensive Line57

-8.8 MINN advantage — 21-point index gap over Akron (pressure differential in the trenches). MINN FBS average.

35Coverage vs Pass Game59

-10.1 MINN advantage — 24-point index gap over Akron (coverage grade against target efficiency). MINN Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.