Vegas Line
Kentucky -22.5
Total 61.5
Model Projection
UK -19.5
UK 95.1% win · O/U 61.5
Value Edge
3.2 pt edge: YSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UK -14.2
- UK: 9 portal additions / 4 departures, first year under Will Stein — 2021–2025 archive weighted 29%, incoming portal talent +4.6 pts.
Youngstown State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kentucky ranks #102 nationally allowing 246.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #31 run defense.
2Contain Jason Patterson
Kentucky's top producer this season: 78 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Youngstown State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Youngstown State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kentucky sits at +1.
4Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 61.5. Anything above 31 points puts Youngstown State on the winning side of an even split.
Kentucky — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Kentucky is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Youngstown State sits at +0.
2Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 61.5. Anything above 31 points puts Kentucky on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kenny MincheyUK · QB
- Passing Yds
- 301
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.1
- TD : INT
- 4 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 209.2
Leading Rusher
Jason PattersonUK · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 78
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 7.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
Kenny DarbyUK · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 24.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Jordan CastellUK · DB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UK by 19.3
Baseline UK -19.5
Simulated Total
61.5
Baseline 61.5
Unit Edge
UK QB
UK Above average · YSU Below average
YSU passing vs UK coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 246.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.271 |
YSU rushing vs UK run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 59.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.1 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.062 |
UK passing vs YSU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 301.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.828 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 37.5% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 506.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 305.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.