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Wyoming logo

Away · #124

Wyoming

1-1 · Mountain West · 13 pts

Week 1 · Final

13 – 35

Colorado State logo

Home · #78

Colorado State

2-0 · Pac-12 · 35 pts

Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM MT Canvas Stadium USA Net

Vegas Line

Colorado State -2.5

Total 46.5

Model Projection

CSU -6.0

CSU 71.6% win · O/U 46.5

Value Edge

3.5 pt edge: CSU

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +5.3 pts toward CSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
WYO -0.7
  • CSU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jim Mora — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.8 pts.
Wyoming logo

Wyoming — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Colorado State ranks #88 nationally allowing 143.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #42 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Jayden Brown

    Colorado State's top producer this season: 57 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Wyoming has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Wyoming converts 0.0% of third downs (#138 nationally) versus Colorado State's 46.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Wyoming is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Colorado State sits at +4.

  5. 5Clear 24 points

    The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Wyoming on the winning side of an even split.

Colorado State logo

Colorado State — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Wyoming ranks #100 nationally allowing 242.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #98 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Samuel Harris

    Wyoming's top producer this season: 63 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Colorado State has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Colorado State converts 46.7% of third downs (#56 nationally) versus Wyoming's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Colorado State is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wyoming sits at -4.

  5. 5Clear 24 points

    The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Colorado State on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Tyler HughesWYO · QB

Passing Yds
130
Completion %
63.2%
Yards / Attempt
6.8
TD : INT
0 : 3
TD/INT Ratio
0.00:1
Passer Rating
89.1

Hauss HejnyCSU · QB

Passing Yds
214
Completion %
69.7%
Yards / Attempt
6.5
TD : INT
5 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
174.2

Leading Rusher

Samuel HarrisWYO · RB

Rushing Yds
63
Carries
16
Yards / Carry
3.9
Rushing TD
0
Long
15

Jayden BrownCSU · RB

Rushing Yds
57
Carries
8
Yards / Carry
7.1
Rushing TD
0
Long
37

Primary Receiver

Jake WilsonWYO · TE

Receiving Yds
51
Receptions
2
Yards / Catch
25.5
Receiving TD
0
Long
29

Reginald Vick JrCSU · WR

Receiving Yds
75
Receptions
6
Yards / Catch
12.5
Receiving TD
3
Long
57

Defensive Leader

Ethan StuhlsatzWYO · LB

Tackles
15
Solo
3
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.5
INT
0

Jaseim MitchellCSU · LB

Tackles
11
Solo
4
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

CSU by 6.0

Baseline CSU -6.0

Simulated Total

46.5

Baseline 46.5

Unit Edge

CSU QB

CSU FBS average · WYO Below average

Open the full simulator

WYO passing vs CSU coverage

130.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G130.0
63.2%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed6.8
6.8Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed63.2%
0.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate10.5%
0.109EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass0.109

WYO rushing vs CSU run defense

143.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G143.0
4.2Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed4.2
3.4Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate12.1%
12.1%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss6
0.083EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush0.083

CSU passing vs WYO coverage

242.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG242.0
7.1Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %70.6%
70.6%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt7.1
0.0%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio5.00:1
0.537Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.537

Efficiency & situational

0.0%Third-down conversion46.7%
273.0Total yards / game396.0
396.0Yards allowed / game273.0
-4Turnover margin+4

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.