Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CMU -4.0
CMU 64.6% win · O/U 46.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.3 pts toward WYO on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CMU -1.2
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Wyoming — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Central Michigan ranks #118 nationally allowing 205.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #57 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wyoming converts 0.0% of third downs (#138 nationally) versus Central Michigan's 18.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Wyoming is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Central Michigan sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Wyoming averages 273.0 total yards per game (#123 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Central Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Wyoming ranks #100 nationally allowing 242.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #98 run defense.
2Contain Samuel Harris
Wyoming's top producer this season: 63 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Central Michigan has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Central Michigan converts 18.2% of third downs (#129 nationally) versus Wyoming's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Central Michigan is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wyoming sits at -4.
5Move the ball efficiently
Central Michigan averages 149.0 total yards per game (#133 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Tyler HughesWYO · QB
- Passing Yds
- 130
- Completion %
- 63.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 0 : 3
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 89.1
Leading Rusher
Samuel HarrisWYO · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 63
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Jake WilsonWYO · TE
- Receiving Yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 25.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 29
Defensive Leader
Ethan StuhlsatzWYO · LB
- Tackles
- 15
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CMU by 3.9
Baseline CMU -4.0
Simulated Total
46.8
Baseline 46.8
Unit Edge
WYO QB
CMU Below average · WYO Below average
WYO passing vs CMU coverage
| 130.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 159.0 |
| 63.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.4 |
| 6.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 68.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.0% |
| 0.109 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.162 |
WYO rushing vs CMU run defense
| 143.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 205.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.7 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 3.0% |
| 12.1% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.083 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.440 |
CMU passing vs WYO coverage
| 242.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 30.0 |
| 7.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 43.8% |
| 70.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 1.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.537 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.383 |
Efficiency & situational
| 0.0% | Third-down conversion | 18.2% |
| 273.0 | Total yards / game | 149.0 |
| 396.0 | Yards allowed / game | 364.0 |
| -4 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.