Week 1 · Final
13 – 41
Vegas Line
Notre Dame -21
Total 46.5
Model Projection
ND -17.5
ND 93.7% win · O/U 46.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WIS
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.8 pts toward ND on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ND -10.2
- ND: 7 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +4.3 pts.
- WIS: 5 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 71%, incoming portal talent −0.2 pts.
Wisconsin — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Notre Dame ranks #86 nationally allowing 217.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #38 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wisconsin converts 38.5% of third downs (#90 nationally) versus Notre Dame's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Wisconsin is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Notre Dame sits at +2.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Wisconsin on the winning side of an even split.
Notre Dame — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Wisconsin ranks #98 nationally allowing 239.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #70 run defense.
2Contain Abu Sama III
Wisconsin's top producer this season: 49 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Notre Dame has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Notre Dame converts 33.3% of third downs (#102 nationally) versus Wisconsin's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Notre Dame is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wisconsin sits at -2.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Notre Dame on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Colton JosephWIS · QB
- Passing Yds
- 217
- Completion %
- 63.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.2
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 128.4
Leading Rusher
Abu Sama IIIWIS · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 49
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 3.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 7
Primary Receiver
Malachi ColemanWIS · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 76
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 19.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 28
Defensive Leader
Mason PosaWIS · LB
- Tackles
- 15
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ND by 17.5
Baseline ND -17.5
Simulated Total
46.5
Baseline 46.5
Unit Edge
ND QB
ND Above average · WIS FBS average
WIS passing vs ND coverage
| 217.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 217.0 |
| 63.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.2 |
| 7.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.3% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.266 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.266 |
WIS rushing vs ND run defense
| 67.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 2.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.2 |
| 2.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.4% |
| 21.4% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.173 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.173 |
ND passing vs WIS coverage
| 239.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 239.0 |
| 8.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.5% |
| 65.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.2 |
| 3.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.442 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.442 |
Efficiency & situational
| 38.5% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 284.0 | Total yards / game | 350.0 |
| 350.0 | Yards allowed / game | 284.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.