Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
WMU -1.0
WMU 53.8% win · O/U 46.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.6 pts toward WMU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WMU -2.9
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Western Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Rice ranks #92 nationally allowing 148.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #18 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Western Michigan converts 44.4% of third downs (#65 nationally) versus Rice's 64.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Western Michigan is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Rice sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Western Michigan averages 221.0 total yards per game (#126 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Rice — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Western Michigan ranks #67 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #63 pass defense.
2Contain Jalen Buckley
Western Michigan's top producer this season: 62 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Rice has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Rice converts 64.7% of third downs (#15 nationally) versus Western Michigan's 44.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Rice is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Western Michigan sits at +3.
5Move the ball efficiently
Rice averages 493.0 total yards per game (#46 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Broc LowryWMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 89
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.2
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.0
Leading Rusher
Jalen BuckleyWMU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 62
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Aveion ChenaultWMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 8.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 16
Defensive Leader
Dillon MooreWMU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.5
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WMU by 1.0
Baseline WMU -1.0
Simulated Total
46.4
Baseline 46.4
Unit Edge
RICE QB
RICE Below average · WMU Below average
WMU passing vs RICE coverage
| 89.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 96.0 |
| 71.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 34.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.0% |
| -0.167 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.273 |
WMU rushing vs RICE run defense
| 132.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 148.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.4% |
| 18.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.039 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.073 |
RICE passing vs WMU coverage
| 170.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 28.0 |
| 7.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 40.0% |
| 52.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 2.8 |
| 4.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.310 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.136 |
Efficiency & situational
| 44.4% | Third-down conversion | 64.7% |
| 221.0 | Total yards / game | 493.0 |
| 276.0 | Yards allowed / game | 244.0 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.