Week 1 · Final
12 – 13
Vegas Line
Michigan -27.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
MICH -24.0
MICH 97.6% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WMU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +7.1 pts toward MICH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MICH -5.1
- MICH: 7 portal additions / 8 departures, first year under Kyle Whittingham — 2021–2025 archive weighted 22%, incoming portal talent −0.7 pts.
Western Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Michigan ranks #79 nationally allowing 132.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #15 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Western Michigan converts 44.4% of third downs (#65 nationally) versus Michigan's 30.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Western Michigan is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Michigan sits at -3.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Western Michigan on the winning side of an even split.
Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Western Michigan ranks #67 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #63 pass defense.
2Contain Jalen Buckley
Western Michigan's top producer this season: 62 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Michigan has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Michigan converts 30.0% of third downs (#112 nationally) versus Western Michigan's 44.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Michigan is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Western Michigan sits at +3.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Michigan on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Broc LowryWMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 89
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.2
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.0
Leading Rusher
Jalen BuckleyWMU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 62
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Aveion ChenaultWMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 8.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 16
Defensive Leader
Dillon MooreWMU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.5
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MICH by 24.0
Baseline MICH -24.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
MICH QB
MICH Above average · WMU Below average
WMU passing vs MICH coverage
| 89.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 89.0 |
| 71.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 71.4% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.5% |
| -0.167 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.167 |
WMU rushing vs MICH run defense
| 132.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 132.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.9 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 18.2% |
| 18.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.039 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.039 |
MICH passing vs WMU coverage
| 170.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 170.0 |
| 7.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 52.2% |
| 52.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 4.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.310 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
Efficiency & situational
| 44.4% | Third-down conversion | 30.0% |
| 221.0 | Total yards / game | 276.0 |
| 276.0 | Yards allowed / game | 221.0 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.