Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
IU -18.0
IU 94.3% win · O/U 59.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +10.6 pts toward IU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- IU -3.6
- IU: 10 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 62%, incoming portal talent +6.3 pts.
Western Kentucky — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Indiana ranks #96 nationally allowing 152.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #85 pass defense.
2Contain Turbo Richard
Indiana's top producer this season: 58 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Western Kentucky has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Western Kentucky converts 35.3% of third downs (#99 nationally) versus Indiana's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Western Kentucky is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Indiana sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Western Kentucky averages 367.0 total yards per game (#91 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Indiana — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Western Kentucky ranks #136 nationally allowing 323.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #60 pass defense.
2Contain Ajay Allen
Western Kentucky's top producer this season: 102 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Indiana has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Indiana converts 55.6% of third downs (#33 nationally) versus Western Kentucky's 35.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Indiana is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Western Kentucky sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Indiana averages 365.0 total yards per game (#93 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Rodney Tisdale Jr.WKU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 203
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.1
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 102.6
Josh HooverIU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 231
- Completion %
- 81.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 14.4
- TD : INT
- 4 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 285.0
Leading Rusher
Ajay AllenWKU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 102
- Carries
- 21
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 23
Turbo RichardIU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 58
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 23
Primary Receiver
Cameron FlowersWKU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 8.6
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Charlie BeckerIU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 64
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 16.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 35
Defensive Leader
Jaylen LewisWKU · DB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Isaiah JonesIU · LB
- Tackles
- 12
- Solo
- 8
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
IU by 18.2
Baseline IU -18.0
Simulated Total
59.9
Baseline 59.9
Unit Edge
IU QB
IU Above average · WKU Below average
WKU passing vs IU coverage
| 203.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 215.0 |
| 60.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 79.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.4% |
| 0.140 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.382 |
WKU rushing vs IU run defense
| 164.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 152.0 |
| 3.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 6.7% |
| 23.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.195 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.043 |
IU passing vs WKU coverage
| 163.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 231.0 |
| 10.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 81.3% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 14.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.446 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.639 |
Efficiency & situational
| 35.3% | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 367.0 | Total yards / game | 365.0 |
| 486.0 | Yards allowed / game | 367.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.